A judgement about the risk of further offending is central to almost every decision made about offenders as they pass through the criminal justice system.
Risk is taken into account at the time of sentencing and when the type of sentence to be imposed is considered, during the sentence in terms of the intensity of rehabilitative resources allocated, and when considering parole and the degree of restriction imposed.
Our ability to predict risk of further offending, violence, and sex offender risk has improved steadily over the last three decades. We have moved from a situation where practitioners went through an unstructured assessment process which resulted in an opinion about further risk, to a stage where we can be much more authoritative on the basis of variables which have a demonstrated relationship to those matters which are to be predicted.
While it is hard for some people to accept, a very consistent finding from research is that simple risk scales (often just a checklist of a few items) invariably outperform the clinical judgments of “experts” such as psychologists, parole boards, social workers, and experienced correctional staff.
Typically, the tools used to predict risk in a criminal justice setting rely on variables such as past history of offending, sentences imposed, seriousness of offences, and basic demographic variables such as age and gender.
Corrections’ Roc*RoI (Risk of Conviction x Risk of Reimprisonment) instrument is a measure of this type and was developed using 133,000 individual criminal histories. This allowed for the precise statistical relationships between offence history and subsequent offending to be determined, which then formed the basis of the prediction device which was installed into the Integrated Offender Management System (IOMS).
The IOMS measure provides precise probabilities that a person will re-offend within a five-year timeframe, and also the probability that that person will receive a prison sentence.
This measure is very accurate, applying equally well to males and females, different age groups, and people who commit different types of crimes.
Although this tool is very useful, it is limited in that the variables which are used to make assessments of risk are historical. Nothing that a person can do can change the number of previous convictions, the types of crimes they have committed, or the number of prison sentences which they have served.
For that reason, Corrections assesses those factors which are also related to reoffending but which are changeable, using the Criminogenic Needs Inventory. That tool, which is primarily employed for deciding programmes a person should undertake during their sentence, also provides valuable information on matters such as substance abuse, violence propensity, antisocial associates and risk taking arousal which may be impacted by participation in rehabilitative programmes with a resultant lowering of risk.
While other additional measures, such as assessment of psychopathy, or specialist risk assessment processes (which also operate within IOMS for predicting sex offender risk) may augment the information generated by the Roc*RoI Instrument, Roc*RoI remains as accurate a predictor of reoffending and imprisonment as any statistical risk assessment process used anywhere in the world.
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ISSN 1178-8453